Congestion? Cheerier, but is forecast real?

October 04, 2010

Forget that fluky forecast from Triangle Transit planners who warned of a future so clogged with cars that a Durham-to-Raleigh bus trip would top four hours.
"That created a lot of problems," said William A. Martin Jr., a consultant who is using computer models and growth projections to help Triangle Transit develop a new regional plan for buses and light-rail trains. "We're modeling how much congestion will be out there, and we want to be more realistic."
The new forecast for the growing region is certainly more optimistic - but it might not be much more realistic.
The Federal Transit Administration blasted the four-hour forecast when it withdrew support for the old Triangle Transit rail plan in 2006. The agency concluded that local traffic would not be awful enough, and the trains would not draw enough drivers, to justify the construction cost.
Now, Wake, Durham and Orange counties are expected to add 800,000 residents over the next 25 years, according to county and state projections. Martin and Triangle Transit predict that a 29-mile rush-hour drive from Duke Medical Center to downtown Raleigh will take 46minutes in 2035.
Commuters know this journey often takes longer than that today - and nobody is predicting that our roads will grow less crowded by 2035.
"The area will get more dense," Wake County Manager David Cooke said Wednesday at a meeting of city and county officials who serve on the Triangle's two transportation planning boards. "More people will move here. So the question is where people are going to live and work - and that question of how we get around is very important."
Triangle Transit is leading a three-county effort to plan light-rail trains and expanded bus service. Local voters may be asked in fall 2011 to approve a half-cent sales tax to help pay for it. State and federal agencies will be asked for money, too.
Planning light-rail
Published schedules for Triangle Transit buses between Raleigh and Durham allow for about an hour to make the trip today. The 2035 forecast predicts that light-rail trains will make the journey in 45 minutes, including stops to pick up passengers along the way.
The travel-time forecasts will help planners pinpoint congested roadways - where commuters would be more likely to leave their cars at home and take the train instead. And that will help the Triangle's county officials in the spring, when they decide where to build the first light-rail lines.
Forecasting is not an exact science. The Federal Transit Administration helps decide which numbers are fed into the computer model.
"We talk about the degree to which you can rely on that travel time - which assumes it's going to be a sunny day and everybody does the right thing, and there are no delays," said Juanita Shearer-Swink, a Triangle Transit planner and project manager.
The region's worst congestion and slowest rush-hour times are expected on Capital Boulevard and U.S. 1 between Wake Forest and downtown Raleigh. In 2035, the new forecast says, this 17-mile trip will take 64 minutes by car, compared with 29 by train.
"Well, I'm going to be retired by then," said Betsy Lake of Wake Forest, who allows an hour for her commute to Raleigh - to make sure she gets to work on time. "That train won't help me."
 bruce.siceloff@newsobserver.com or 919-829-4527
Originally published by the News & Observer: http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/10/04/719191/congestion-cheerier-but-is-forecast.html